Searching For Value in the Southwest Stakes

J. Scott

This Saturday’s Derby Prep at Oaklawn Park will be a two horse battle between Breeders Cup Juvenile Winner, Essential Quality and fourth place finisher, Jackie’s Warrior.

Essential Quality seems slightly better placed to take this one after a pristine record as a two-year-old and white-hot training by Brad Cox. Essential Quality’s form in the Southwest Stakes may well be a preview of a Kentucky Derby front runner.

Jackie’s Warrior will be close contender to Essential Quality after an aggressive two-year-old campaign and a career best 101 Beyer in the Champagne Stakes. 

Jackie’s Warrior may appear over matched until you do a deep-read of the race chart. The colt raced two-wide with Essential Quality and was neck and neck until the final furlong, then ran out of steam and dropped to fourth, completing the Superfecta. After three months of rest, may be fresh enough to surpass Essential Quality in their rematch today.

But me I look for value, and although these two will be battling it out for the top spot, there is another contender that provides not only value, but an interesting outsiders possibility of getting in the money for a sweet payoff. 

Woodhouse is currently sitting at 8/1 and is one of the two most recently raced in this group, coming in 3rd after being stuck in traffic in his last start. 

Breaking his Maiden in a four-wide drive to victory, Woodhouse seems like he has the innate ability to overcome adversity and the will to win. Woodhouse by Speightstown is entering his third race in the form cycle and the Southwest Stakes could be a big move forward for the young colt. 

If Woodhouse can get up in front of Jackie’s Warrior or even Essential Quality, it is going to be a good day for your wallet.

I will take the chance Woodhouse gets involved for at least a taste.

Good Luck!

Essential Quality

Jackies Warrior w/ Woodhouse

Jackies Warrior w/ Woodhouse

Both ways. 

The Southwest (G3)

The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth

J. Scott

The Fasig-Tipton-Fountain of Youth is one of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby Prep fields so far this season. 

Today’s Grade 2 at Gulfstream Park has all the ingredients needed to cook up a tasty day of Horse Racing. There is speed, Breeders Cup Champions, future Hall of Fame Trainer Todd Pletcher and a couple of horses taking a real big shot.

Then there is an interesting prospect in Fire At Will, looking to transition from turf to dirt and lay the foundation for a run for the roses.

Fire At Will’s turf form has been stellar, winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf by three lengths with a 90 Beyer Speed figure. The dark brown-on-brown beauty makes his 3-year-old premiere today and shows the steady, sure style of Mike Maker’s training that could catapult this colt to victory.

A pedigree deeply favoring turf, but flashing champion level versatility, Fire At Will is ready for anything thrown his way. The colt has won on dirt, slop, and most notably turf, showing he can take what he gets and still get in front. He may add Fountain of Youth Winner to his pedigree on Saturday, but Shug McGaughey’s Greatest Honor, Todd Pletcher’s Prime Factor and Saffie Joesph Jr’s, Drain The Clock may have other ideas. All three horses have shown speed enough to spoil Fire At Will’s Saturday at Gulfstream.

The Fountain of Youth may shine some daylight on which horses in this field are legitimate Derby contenders now, and who needs more time to run.

I think where there’s a Will, there is a way-to the Winner’s Circle.

Good Luck!

Fire At Will

Greatest Honor

Prime Factor w/ Drain the Clock

The Fasig-Tipton-Fountain of Youth