Saturday, February 27, 2021

Searching For Value in the Southwest Stakes

J. Scott

This Saturday’s Derby Prep at Oaklawn Park will be a two horse battle between Breeders Cup Juvenile Winner, Essential Quality and fourth place finisher, Jackie’s Warrior.

Essential Quality seems slightly better placed to take this one after a pristine record as a two-year-old and white-hot training by Brad Cox. Essential Quality’s form in the Southwest Stakes may well be a preview of a Kentucky Derby front runner.

Jackie’s Warrior will be close contender to Essential Quality after an aggressive two-year-old campaign and a career best 101 Beyer in the Champagne Stakes. 

Jackie’s Warrior may appear over matched until you do a deep-read of the race chart. The colt raced two-wide with Essential Quality and was neck and neck until the final furlong, then ran out of steam and dropped to fourth, completing the Superfecta. After three months of rest, may be fresh enough to surpass Essential Quality in their rematch today.

But me I look for value, and although these two will be battling it out for the top spot, there is another contender that provides not only value, but an interesting outsiders possibility of getting in the money for a sweet payoff. 

Woodhouse is currently sitting at 8/1 and is one of the two most recently raced in this group, coming in 3rd after being stuck in traffic in his last start. 

Breaking his Maiden in a four-wide drive to victory, Woodhouse seems like he has the innate ability to overcome adversity and the will to win. Woodhouse by Speightstown is entering his third race in the form cycle and the Southwest Stakes could be a big move forward for the young colt. 

If Woodhouse can get up in front of Jackie’s Warrior or even Essential Quality, it is going to be a good day for your wallet.

I will take the chance Woodhouse gets involved for at least a taste.

Good Luck!

Essential Quality

Jackies Warrior w/ Woodhouse

Jackies Warrior w/ Woodhouse

Both ways. 

The Southwest (G3)

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