PREAKNESS DAY 2014

So is it bad to be the first one at the office on Preakness Day?

Not if your "Office" has Pari-mutuel wagering and a betting window without a line less than 15 feet away… 

(cause mine does)

"THIS IS THE NEW STYLE" 2014 DERBY WORKSHEET

WHAT'S UP RACE FANS! ONE DAY AND COUNTING!

We're trying something new this year for the Derby, a brand new, super-futuristic, "spread sheet" instead of my usual chicken scratch bs to narrow down my picks, let me know if you approve. Now I can't promise I won't revert to my old ways, but for now here you go.

Now this is just where I am at this juncture, not counting further revisions, alterations, and race day Hail Mary's.

You can bet the Derby two ways (well thousands of ways but I'm trying to dumb it down) you can either believe in the clear cut favorite will win and build tickets with higher priced horses underneath or believe the favorite is vulnerable and try to beat them. I believe California Chrome may be vulnerable.
(Pipe Dreams On Paper assumes no liability for you following my dumb ass into the breach, or to the windows, and all readers should assume that I know nothing. Cause it's Derby Day and ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!)

Mr. Andrew Beyer had this to say today; 
"The pace scenario is hard to predict this year, but there are plenty of quick horses besides California Chrome – notably Chitu, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, and Uncle Sigh – who could produce a suicidal pace."

Will you be there to pick up the pieces? 

Good Luck tomorrow.

That's All I Got,
raychihasspoken

2014 Kentucky Derby LIVE Post Position Draw Today at 2pm PST!

The vitally important draw for which Kentucky Derby Horses get to start out of which gate is being shown live on NBC SPORTS LIVE airing at 2pm PST and 5pm EST. 

The post position draw can dramatically change the landscape of the Derby, how the race unfolds, and every horses chances of winning or losing, not to mention the odds, which is REAL important to all of you hoping to wager….

Many horse (and trainer's) Derby Dreams have been dashed due to a bad gate position, so stay tuned to see how it shakes out.

4 DAYS AND COUNTING!

http://stream.nbcsports.com/liveextra/

Thats All I Got,
raychihasspoken

Every Bet Every Track Every Time - 5 DAY DERBY COUNTDOWN!

Hello there my Faithful Few,

WE ARE ONLY 5 DAYS AWAY FROM THE GREATEST DAY IN SPORTS (NO NOT THE DAMN SUPERBOWL OR SOME LAME NBA WHATEVER), I'M TALKING ABOUT A  REAL SPORTING EVENT, SOMETHING THAT MATTERS…

THE 140TH RUNNING OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY!

I CAN'T WAIT TILL SATURDAY, and the ensuing triumphs and tragedies that always accompany the First Saturday in May, (and of course Ray Chi's Annual Superfecta predictions and winning ticket play-by-plays), but more on that later…

This is about something that is important for all of us Race Fans and in my humble opinion, the future of the sport-Uniform Medication Rules (this entry dovetails nicely with "A Polite Response to Mr. Andrew Beyer") and Every Bet Every Track Every Time.

The NTRA and the The Jockey Club have written a great proposal and petition for unified medication rules, testing accreditation, and penalty guidelines that is a great first step in the fight to standardize the entire Horse Racing industry and bring some much needed order the convoluted mess that is "regulation" in the industry. I truly believe without standardizing medication, the way and timing of how it is administered, and the punishments of rule breakers, that our sport will wither away and die.
We need this so please do your part for our beloved sport and sign the petition today!

Read the entire letter from the NTRA
Sign the Jockey Club Petition Today!

OK enough of the soapbox, more witty insights and ranting later this week….

Thats All I Got,
raychihasspoken

PRAY FOR THE KING!

Cross your fingers, pray, rub the Buddha, or whatever it is you do, BUT DO IT and send Steven Crist some much needed positive energy. 

The "King of the Pick 6" suffered a cardiac arrest in his home Sunday April 6th (and is apparently in stable but still critical condition.) Steven Crist is not only my defacto handicapping Mentor but revitalized the The Daily Racing Form after purchasing it with a group in 1998.

Steven Crist is a heavyweight in the world of Horse Racing, author, publisher, columnist, and he revolutionized the publics approach to handicapping, (especially yours truly) with his groundbreaking book, "Exotic Betting" changing the way people think not just about their wagers, but how they are going to structure their wagers as well. The book also helped handicappers manage their betting bankroll more effectively to create more opportunities for them to cash a winning ticket.

Good Luck has seemed to follow him his entire life, so let's hope it continues and Mr.Crist makes a speedy recovery and gets back on his feet, and to the track, as soon as possible, or at least can write his highly anticipated Kentucky Derby Blog entry from his recovery bed, it is a tradition I don't want to break.

http://www.drf.com/news/crists-condition-remains-stable

Get well soon sir.

Thats all I got,
raychihasspoken

Your Mother Was Right About Everything

It's my Mom's birthday today.

I'd love to call and tell her "Happy Birthday, I love you!" and then go out to lunch or dinner and have a few laughs and a great old time, but I can't. She's gone now so I can't, but maybe your Mother IS here and you know what you should do? Call her.

Call your Mother and tell her she was right, right about everything and you are sorry that you doubted her or even questioned her in the first place. 

The thing you can't shake is that she was right, about it all. Everything she told you that you resisted or laughed off, or thought she was being way too over protective, or you threw a tantrum about, she was right and you were wrong and you should tell her that, today.

What's that you say? What the hell am I talking about? How could she possibly be right about everything? Well eating your vegetables, IS good of you, medical science and about a million+ doctors, nutritionists and the like all agree. You don't want to get scurvy do you?

Using your manners IS important, and in today's world is a disappearing thing of the past that I am very, very grateful to say was "ingrained" into me from an early age. Every time I see someone let a door slam in some poor woman's face or a senior citizen standing and holding on for dear life on the bus while some punk with his flat-billed hat turned sideways is resting comfortably in his seat, (which I have to constantly subdue my overwhelming urge to physically remove them from…) Or whenever I hear the word "gimme", in place of the very simple to use "please and thank you", I thank Paulla for all she taught me.

I think the most important thing she was right about was this, "Well you told ______ you were going to do ______, so now you've got to do it." 

Or in Paulla-speak; "Don't write a check with your mouth that your ass can't cover." It's about keeping your word and not throwing it around frivolously, about being dependable and someone other people can rely on, and living up to it all by simply saying you will. It could be as basic as going to a birthday party you said you would attend or helping someone move or maybe backing up your co-worker with the Boss at the big company meeting, or the simple sentence,"Call me if you need some help." People will, so you have to. 

You don't really have a lot in life that you can truly own as much as the words that come out of your mouth. In the good old days where there were no written contracts just deals sealed with just a man's word and simple hand shake, that's what your Mom and mine were talking about. It's important, so remember it, "Your Word is Your Bond-Live by it."

Here's the thing about Mother's, good or bad they are unforgettable. All the things they taught you, (whether you knew it at the time or not), the lessons, hard and otherwise that shaped and shifted your life, your very existence is thanks to and because of them.

...and of course all the many, many times they were right. 

I miss you Mom, Happy Birthday.

thats all I got

A Polite Response to Mr. Andrew Beyer

Hello Faithful Few, this post is in response to an article I read today in the Daily Racing Form by way of the Washington Post entitled "Andrew Beyer: Racing industry keeps horseplayers off balance" about how confusing race conditions are hurting the racing industries access to new players.  http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer-racing-industry-keeps-horseplayers-balance

Mr. Andrew Beyer,

(You by the way are one of my personal heroes and the person responsible for getting me into Horse racing in the first place, so thank you.)

I agree with your article that this is a confusing part of the game, but this is really only a concern for the advanced player as a new bettor is far too overwhelmed to even worry about conditions or types of races, and it is a much broader problem that we face. The sport is dying, literally as the average age of a serious horseplayer is somewhere around 65, (I am usually the youngest person at the OTB and I am by no means young...) Without attracting new players either casual or serious the sport will all but disappear in a few short years, or be merely a sideline to the slot machines and other games of chance and non-skill.

The game becomes more and more clouded and shady every race and the final results increasingly baffling and unbelievable, couple that with larger and larger take outs, and it is making the game all but un-winnable, save for large syndicates with ocean deep pockets. The serious Handicapper who does somehow manage to win, is seeing his winnings, (and R.O.I ) get smaller and smaller and then there are the taxes...so you are literally shrinking your pool of players by reducing their piece of the pie every single day.

In my humble opinion, what we need to save the sport is threefold:

1. Standards, Regulations and Uniformity in the the Sport:
   Testing, testing, testing, permissible drug use, race conditions, take-out, Stewardship, EVERYTHING, the same at every track, every state, everywhere. If the new bettor knows what to expect and that it is a level playing field state to state or track to track, Every Bet, Every Track, Every Time, it will instill confidence in the sport and encourage new dollars to the game.
   
   
2. Reduce Take Out across the Sport and Set Uniform Standards and Maximums:
   I know what your thinking;” The tracks aren’t making any money so they need bigger and bigger take outs to survive.” I'm sorry but it is exactly the opposite. If the race track gets15%-36% out of every dollar wagered off the top, and the average bettor isn't winning, he has less and less to wager every race and then eventually is left with nothing and no urge to return or frequent his local race track. If the take out was lowered and standardized you would return more of the bettors dollars to them every bet, giving them more dollars to put into circulation, and more money left for food, drink etc. By lessening the bite on the bettor, they would have more dollars to play longer, and more impetus to return again, and again. Would you as the track rather get 36% one time or 10% many, many times, (it should be an easy answer?)
   
   2b} Standardized Take Out means Standardized Take Out:
   Why does the track take more of a bite out of the Exotic Wager and less out of straight W/P/S wagers when it is infinitely more difficult to hit exotics and the bulk of the betting done by causal bettors are straight W/P/S wagers? The take out should be the same, Every Bet, Every Track, Every Time. I suggest a more than fair flat 10% take out structure for every wager. If you lower the vig on all types of wagers, especially exotics you are are going to increase the likelihood of the inexperienced bettor making these types of wagers thus increasing dollars in the pools, thereby creating a cascade effect by the serious handicapper spending more on these bets trying to scoop up all that “uneducated money” and then increasing the over all handle, not once- but continuously. Why does one bet cost more than another anyway?
   
   
3. Redesigned Approach to Marketing:
   I was lucky enough to cross of an item from my Bucket List a few years ago and went to the Breeders Cup, 95% of the people I told I was going did not know what it was, or had never even heard of it, and that is a MAJOR problem and roadblock to market when the general public doesn't even know about their sports biggest event after 31 years of running it.
   The industry has done a good job of starting to use Social Media and the like to reach out to the younger audience they crave and need to survive, but the came late to the party and they need to step it up if they want to be here 10 years from now. They need to make a concentrated effort to market to younger potential players by changing their entire strategy from an insider to an outsiders perspective. Assume who you are marketing to knows nothing, not one single thing about Horse Racing and then go from there. They need to focus the ads somewhere where young people are, and not where the Horseplayers already are; spots during The Voice, or Big Bang Theory, or during the W.S.O.P on ESPN for gods sake! Reach out to Fraternities and Fantasy Leagues, and any other group with a high propensity for competition, not necessarily gambling and then the dollars will cross over. Have beginners clinics at Every Track, Every Time and partner with younger, hipper sponsors to cross market, offset cost and establish a brand, you know 101 marketing stuff, cmon! If the average Joe (or Jill) doesn't even know about Horse racing how are you going to get them to go to the track, little alone spend their hard earned dollars on wagers they don't understand, just to have the track take a massive chunk right off the top, and then maybe not get paid when they win(...Rainbow-6 anyone?)

The industry needs to branch out, think outside the oval, and get standardized if they want to survive, it is that simple. The general public, average bettor, heck even the serious bettor feels the sport is almost un-winnable and the overwhelming perception is that it is fixed, and what type of a race or the convoluted conditions surrounding it are a far more advanced problem then the larger one facing our beloved sport. Every other major sport has the same rules and regulations no matter where their games are held, why not Horse racing?

Every Bet, Every Track, Every Time, or else.

Mr. Beyer thank you for your continued contribution to the sport of Horse racing, you are and will always be THE MAN.

That's All I Got,

-raychihasspoken