I LOVE IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER

Sometimes you have to go with your gut, before the odds drop! Check out the date on this.....

Do you think Marshawn is happy he's back?

BACK IN BLACK WITH BEASTMODE

BEASTMODE IS BACK...IN BLACK AND SILVER. 

Marshawn Lynch formally signed with his hometown Oakland Raiders today after months of speculation and somehow convincing the Seahawks to release him.

Lynch is one of the most respected and beloved players in the NFL, not just Seahawks fans, but people everywhere love Marshawn and what he does on and off the field, in the way only Marshawn can.

I know what you're thinking; "If Beastmode wanted to "unretire" why didn't he just go back to the Seahawks and go right back to straight winning?" Well, is possible he may be holding a bit of a grudge against Pete Carroll after the worst call in the history of football cost the Hawks a repeat victory in Superbowl XLIX? I sure as hell would be, and not just for the money it cost me on blown wagers...

Anyway, I love Marshawn Lynch, you know why? Cause he flat out doesn't give a shit. His genuine love of the game transcends all the hype and shoe deals, the norm of pro athletes concentrating more on "trying to get paid" than winning games.  Marshawn is seriously, "All 'bout that Action Boss!"

Do you know what Beastmode wants to do? He wants to stomp on the chest of his opponent as he pounds your team into submission. He wants to pulverize your team's will to win because his will is stronger than yours, and your team is going to find out the hard way. Marshawn wants to play in your face, semi truck football in his hometown, on his terms, and not the "we're resting our players today cause we have a big game in two weeks," kind of crap you see today in professional sports.
He ain't havin it.

All of Seattle will be very, very sad to see Beastmode go and we will miss every Skittles soaked moment of watching him play. But hopefully, we can all be happy for him for doing what he does, following his heart which has always beat strong for Oakland.
Fireworks baby Fireworks.

We'll see you in the Superbowl Marshawn, Seattle thanks you for keeping it really real.
Fo real tho.

That's all I got,
raychihasspoken

Prepping to Prep

Greetings Fearless Few,

Best laid plans and best intentions aside, I have been remiss to comment lately on Horseracing or Gambling in general because, well quite frankly, I haven't done any! I am on a VICE-free isle of good ole fashioned work, work and more work that leaves little free time for anything but. 

ALAS Prep Race Season is here and I should be my more in the mix as to not let my loyal readers go hungry for action; so stay tuned for more updates, play by plays, interesting anecdotes and devastating defeats at the wire....

That's all I got,
raychihasspoken

PREAKNESS DAY 2016! 

Well it's finally here and its wet and muddy, you know what that means...anything.

Here are todays scratches race fans, good luck!

PREAKNESS POST POSITION DRAW

Well, how did you do on the Derby?  Well in one of the slowest Derby's I can remember Nyquist not surprisingly beat a less than stellar field to win the first leg of this years Triple Crown, American Pharaoh he ain't.

So the Preakness is almost here and draw just finished leaving Nyquist in the sweet spot Post 3, perfect in a lack luster field of wannabe challengers. Only two horses from the Derby are running in the Preakness, and it is second place Exaggerator and "NO chance in hell Lani" have chosen to go again.

There doesn't seem to be much competition for the Derby winner in this one and it may just be a walk, but I'll be keeping my eyes on Stradivari as a possible outside spoiler, and Uncle Lino is deceptively dangerous, stay tuned faithful few....

2016 PREAKNESS POST POSITIONS (WITH ODDS AS OFF 5/18)

1.) Cherry Wine, C. Lanerie, 20-1

2.) Uncle Lino, F. Perez, 20-1

3.)  Nyquist, M. Guttierez, 3-5

4.) Awesome Speed, J. Toledo, 30-1

5.) Exaggerator, K. Desormeaux, 3-1

6.) Lani, Y. Take, 30-1

7.) Collected, J. Castellano, 10-1

8.) Laoban, F. Geroux, 30-1

9.) Abiding Star, J.D. Acosta, 30-1

10.) Fellowship, J. Lezcano, 30-1

11.) Stradivari, J. Velazquez, 8-1


That's All I Got,
raychihasspoken

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY DELUGE IS HERE!

I know, I know, I KNOW! 

I've been gone forever. Temporarily gone, but not forgotten; like your beaten up, broke down first VW Squareback that you lovingly drove into the ground, or your first forbidden sip of tasty, tasty whiskey from Mr. O's liquor cabinet, you think of me fondly and often. 

I know it's a big, big, responsibility, and I've let you down. This whole "adult life" thing is really getting in the way of my pithy insights and paranoid ramblings about how everything in the world is fixed. 

Too many hours of real work, to many nights of sleep deprivation, too many drinks mixed and made, too many dog day afternoons....and that leaves little time for the important stuff...

BETTING HORSES, SWEET VICTORY, AND THEN WRITING ABOUT IT ALL!
(This years Derby Deluge will be in presented in an abbreviated format due to the fact that for the first time in what I believe is 25 long years, I will not be betting the Derby race by race in my usual all day session at "my office." I will instead be speed handicapping tomorrows card and placing all my bets for the day today, in what can only be hailed as a Pick-and-Pray-Holy-Crap-Shoot-Style Format, due to the constraints of adult life....

So Stay tuned for any juicy tidbits or wise guy wisdom to follow, but for now I do have a couple things to say about tomorrows card:

How on Earth did Baffert not go back to the well with Espinoza for this one? Unbelievable!

Baffert + Gary Stevens = getting all my money.



Good Luck. Get Well. Win Everything.

Thats all I've Got,
raychihasspoken 

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY WAKE UP CALL!

  WAKE UP FAITHFUL READERS ITS DERBY DAY! 
    CHECK YOUR ODDS!

2015 Kentucky Derby Post Positions!

The 2015 Kentucky Derby 

Post time: 6:34 p.m. Saturday at Churchill Downs. Purse: $2,203,800. Distance: 1 1/4 miles. TV: NBC. Radio: ESPN 680 in Louisville or HorseRacingRadio.net; Sirius 93 and XM 208.

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (126) Trujillo/Cassidy 50-1

2. Carpe Diem (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 8-1

3. Materiality (126) Castellano/Pletcher 12-1

4. Tencendur (126) Franco/Weaver 30-1

5. Danzig Moon (126) Leparoux/Casse 30-1

6. Mubtaahij (126) Soumillon/de Kock 20-1

7. El Kabeir (126) Borel/Terranova 30-1

8. Dortmund (126) Garcia/Baffert 3-1

9. Bolo (126) Bejarano/Gaines 30-1

10. Firing Line (126) Stevens/Callaghan 12-1

11. Stanford (126) Geroux/Pletcher 30-1

12. International Star (126) Mena/Maker 20-1

13. Itsaknockout (126) Saez/Pletcher 30-1

14. Keen Ice (126) Desormeaux/Romans 50-1

15. Frosted (126) Rosario/McLaughlin 15-1

16. War Story (126) Talamo/Amoss 50-1

17. Mr. Z (126) Vazquez/Lukas 50-1

18. American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 5-2

19. Upstart (126) Ortiz/Violette 15-1

20. Far Right (126) Smith/Moquett 30-1

21. (AE) Frammento (126) Nakatani/Zito 50-1

22. (AE) Tale of Verve (126) Hernandez Jr./Stewart 50-1

Bold Predictions and Best Laid Plans to follow...GOOD LUCK!

raychihasspoken

BREEDERS CUP SATURDAY 2014

Good Morning Race Fans! MAN IS IT EARLY!

Breeders Cup Saturday the "Richest Day in Racing" is finally here! 

I know you've all been patiently waiting sitting by your laptop, iPad, or smartphone just dying for an update on the "interwebs" about yesterday's racing action after such a sweet kick off…

Well after longshot #8 Princess Bertrando came in 2nd in the 3rd race and destroyed a huge pile of tickets, I decided to go for the "Failure Daily Double" and Rosie Napravnik* obliged me by brilliantly guiding #10 Long on Value to utterly destroy my multi-race wagers coming in to pay $25 to win.

If you follow that up with a string of low paying favorites, well then you pretty much have the rest of the day.

Now I'll be playing from behind today which no one wants to do, but if you're looking for any day to make a GIANT come back with huge score, there is no better day to do it then Breeders Cup Saturday, a day jam-packed with rich wagering opportunities.

So stop crying, knock the dirt off, grab your dwindling bankroll and let's do this!

*Rosie Napravnik later dropped a Hiroshima sized bombshell on the racing world after guiding Untapable to another victory by announcing she is preggers and will retire after Saturday's Breeders Cup races! Everyone in racing is sorry to see her go, but what a sweet way to go out on top! 

Good Luck Today,

That's All I Got,
raychihasspoken

BREEDERS CUP 2014

IT'S ALWAYS GOOD TO COME OFF THE BENCH SWINGING!

RIGHT OFF THE BAT….

BREEDERS CUP 2014 LOOKS TO BE THE BEST EVER!

IT'S FINALLY HERE!

(Well in less than~22 hours it will be) So get your wallets, plan your attack and get ready to WIN!!!)

Every year I tell myself I am going to follow the Horse racing season more and follow all the races as the horses progress from the Triple Crown till the Breeders Cup and then on to Horse of the Year. 

The sad part is EVERY YEAR I get caught up in "work" or "life" and don't get to follow the season like I want too and then, suddenly it's Breeders Cup time again, and the fateful day is upon us! It's time to dust off my lucky hat, get out paper and pen, my trusty laptop, check Crist's Blog on DRF and get to work!

This monumental wagering event looks incredible with huge fields filled with champions, and tons of betting opportunities, because as we all know: BIG FIELDS=BIG MONEY!

Since historically the Breeders Cup Weekend has turned out to be some of my biggest scores of the year, I'd like you all to cross your fingers, rub the Buddha, grab your lucky horseshoe and pray for a repeat x10!

Since I am still waiting for my tickets which have never arrived… I'll be firmly ensconced for the next 48hours at my NORCAL office surrounded by like-minded AARP members, my Daily Racing Form firmly in hand, with a HUGE STACK CASH, and quite possibly a celebratory glass filled to the brim with bourbon.

Good Luck to all and stay tuned for game day updates…

http://www.breederscup.com

Thats All I got,
raychihasspoken

IT'S ALMOST TIME….

FINALLY A (TAX) BREAK - SIGN THE PETITION TO END UNFAIR TAXATION ON HORSEPLAYERS!

Hello My Loyal Minions,

I'm not sure you know this (unless you're throwing around big paper at The Office on a regular basis like your's truly…) but the way Horse Players are taxed on their winning wagers, especially exotic wagers does not take into account the total amount wagered only that individual winning wager, so there is a disproportionate tax burden placed on the bettor. 

Let me break it down for you: I win a Pick-4 on an individual ticket that costs $12 and pays out $800.  I get taxed using the outdated concept that I just wandered into the local betting parlor, pulled a Rain Man and just bet a single .50 Pick-4 2x2x2x3 ticket out of the air, yes it is possible but most likely not what really happened.

What most likely happened is that I had a multi-ticket plan for success where I wagered somewhere in the $200-$300 range (for a 37% R.O.I) on the P4 on multiple combinations and tickets and this was just the one that hit.  

So instead of getting fairly taxed on the total investment I made of $300 the IRS hammers me for the $12 wager, not cool. It is not only unfair taxation, it also has a broad sweeping ripple effect on the entire industry, taking money directly out of the bettors pocket and leaving them less dollars to wager and pour back into the pipeline to sustain the industry. 

(Please see the post "A Polite Response to Mr. Andrew Beyer" for more details on this)

Most serious Handicappers don't even calculate profit on a wager by wager basis, it is based on total wagered for the day, (or month or year whatever your reporting period is) because that gives you a more accurate picture of your actual profit and R.O.I.

(Dorked-out math example for the layman) 
The way the Man holds you down: $12 wager-$800 winnings = "taxable profit"of $788

How the Petition will change that (a.k.a how it should be calculated:)
$300 in total wagers - $800 winnings = actual taxable profit of $500 which means getting taxed on $288 LESS than they take currently. 

That is a BIG difference in taxes, in actual dollars taken out of circulation and not wagered back into the pools, and to the serious bettor a MAJOR detriment to your yearly bankroll.

So please sign the Petition for the betterment of Horse Racing as a whole, not just your's truly, but more money in my pocket means more left to buy my homies drinks later…

Thank you for signing and please feel free to pass it on and share with everyone you know.
PLEASE SIGN HERE!
Here is what DRF's C.E.O had to say about it:

That's All I got.
raychihaspoken

BELMONT STAKES FOLLOW UP: I'll TAKE WHEELBARROW FULL OF CASH PLEASE

2014 BELMONT STAKES & CALIFORNIA CHROME - THE PERFECT SET UP FOR VICTORY!

ONE MORE DAY TILL THE BELMONT STAKES! 

Hello Faithful Few,

History in the making or fantastic rags to riches run for the money ending in almost? Only one day to go till the most likely winner of the Belmont Stakes, California Chrome thunderously gallops into the history books of horse racing and becomes a living sports legend… or doesn't.

I WOULD LOVE to see a Triple Crown winner for the first time in 36 years and do I think California Chrome deserves to win, absolutely, (except for the fact that I won't be there and if he does indeed win the Triple Crown I will probably never forgive myself for not biting the bullet and flying out to watch with my own eyes, but I digress.) He is a great horse with fantastic tactical speed and a tremendous will to win. He has a ready made rags-to-riches back story, complete with lovable owners and old school (and actually the oldest) trainer who trains his horses with plenty of time to mature and come into form and he doesn't try to rush them prematurely and risk them getting hurt a quick buck, you know, the way all trainers should do it.

This story WOULD be the PERFECT addition to the storied legends of the Triple Crown, with a couple of unlikely but very likable guys who took a chance and won, turned down big money ($6M to be exact), for a chance at the biggest prize in horse racing and WON IT ALL! You can't even make up movies this good! (Attention Hollywood if you haven't optioned this yet, you are probably too late by now.)

Do I believe California Chrome is the best horse in the field and CAN actually win, YES.

Do I think he has been helped greatly by brilliant rides by his jockey Victor Espinoza, absolutely.

Do I think California Chrome had very, VERY easy trips in both the Kentucky Derby AND the Preakness, you bet I do.

Do I think the rest of the field, pales in comparison, that is the $1M question.

It's not that California Chrome is so great, it is that the rest of the field, (and honestly all three of the Triple Crown races fields), are so much worse. Unlike past years with SO many amazing horses vying for victory, all so closely matched in lineage and credentials it was nearly impossible to pick a winner, little alone a Trifecta! What does it say about the rest of these horses entered that they can't even come close to this "humbly bred colt" with a very modest and very well publicized pedigree?

They couldn't catch him in the Derby and they couldn't catch him in the Preakness, so how are they going to magically snap him off now?

I am not taking anything away from Chrome or his connections, I hope he blows the doors off the competition tomorrow and goes on to make truckloads of cash for the Dumb Ass Partners and gallops right onto the pages of history, I am just making a point.

This is the perfect set up for a new Triple Crown winner and I don't think it has been this perfect, for another contender ever.

SO THAT SAID, you have two choices tomorrow, go with the most likely favorite or try and beat him, there is no other scenario. So make a decision and either end up with a handful of cash and a cute story or a wheelbarrow full and write a rad blog about it, you decide.

Cute Story:

1.)California Chrome 2.) Commanding Curve 3.) Tonalist 4.) Ride One Curlin

Wheelbarrow Full of Cash:

1.) Commanding Curve 2.) Tonalist 3.) California Chrome/Wicked Strong 4.) Commissioner/Ride On Curlin


Good Luck tomorrow and here's to a Triple Crown Winner - California Chrome.

Thats All I Got,
raychihasspoken

PREAKNESS DAY 2014

So is it bad to be the first one at the office on Preakness Day?

Not if your "Office" has Pari-mutuel wagering and a betting window without a line less than 15 feet away… 

(cause mine does)

"THIS IS THE NEW STYLE" 2014 DERBY WORKSHEET

WHAT'S UP RACE FANS! ONE DAY AND COUNTING!

We're trying something new this year for the Derby, a brand new, super-futuristic, "spread sheet" instead of my usual chicken scratch bs to narrow down my picks, let me know if you approve. Now I can't promise I won't revert to my old ways, but for now here you go.

Now this is just where I am at this juncture, not counting further revisions, alterations, and race day Hail Mary's.

You can bet the Derby two ways (well thousands of ways but I'm trying to dumb it down) you can either believe in the clear cut favorite will win and build tickets with higher priced horses underneath or believe the favorite is vulnerable and try to beat them. I believe California Chrome may be vulnerable.
(Pipe Dreams On Paper assumes no liability for you following my dumb ass into the breach, or to the windows, and all readers should assume that I know nothing. Cause it's Derby Day and ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!)

Mr. Andrew Beyer had this to say today; 
"The pace scenario is hard to predict this year, but there are plenty of quick horses besides California Chrome – notably Chitu, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, and Uncle Sigh – who could produce a suicidal pace."

Will you be there to pick up the pieces? 

Good Luck tomorrow.

That's All I Got,
raychihasspoken

2014 Kentucky Derby LIVE Post Position Draw Today at 2pm PST!

The vitally important draw for which Kentucky Derby Horses get to start out of which gate is being shown live on NBC SPORTS LIVE airing at 2pm PST and 5pm EST. 

The post position draw can dramatically change the landscape of the Derby, how the race unfolds, and every horses chances of winning or losing, not to mention the odds, which is REAL important to all of you hoping to wager….

Many horse (and trainer's) Derby Dreams have been dashed due to a bad gate position, so stay tuned to see how it shakes out.

4 DAYS AND COUNTING!

http://stream.nbcsports.com/liveextra/

Thats All I Got,
raychihasspoken

Every Bet Every Track Every Time - 5 DAY DERBY COUNTDOWN!

Hello there my Faithful Few,

WE ARE ONLY 5 DAYS AWAY FROM THE GREATEST DAY IN SPORTS (NO NOT THE DAMN SUPERBOWL OR SOME LAME NBA WHATEVER), I'M TALKING ABOUT A  REAL SPORTING EVENT, SOMETHING THAT MATTERS…

THE 140TH RUNNING OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY!

I CAN'T WAIT TILL SATURDAY, and the ensuing triumphs and tragedies that always accompany the First Saturday in May, (and of course Ray Chi's Annual Superfecta predictions and winning ticket play-by-plays), but more on that later…

This is about something that is important for all of us Race Fans and in my humble opinion, the future of the sport-Uniform Medication Rules (this entry dovetails nicely with "A Polite Response to Mr. Andrew Beyer") and Every Bet Every Track Every Time.

The NTRA and the The Jockey Club have written a great proposal and petition for unified medication rules, testing accreditation, and penalty guidelines that is a great first step in the fight to standardize the entire Horse Racing industry and bring some much needed order the convoluted mess that is "regulation" in the industry. I truly believe without standardizing medication, the way and timing of how it is administered, and the punishments of rule breakers, that our sport will wither away and die.
We need this so please do your part for our beloved sport and sign the petition today!

Read the entire letter from the NTRA
Sign the Jockey Club Petition Today!

OK enough of the soapbox, more witty insights and ranting later this week….

Thats All I Got,
raychihasspoken

PRAY FOR THE KING!

Cross your fingers, pray, rub the Buddha, or whatever it is you do, BUT DO IT and send Steven Crist some much needed positive energy. 

The "King of the Pick 6" suffered a cardiac arrest in his home Sunday April 6th (and is apparently in stable but still critical condition.) Steven Crist is not only my defacto handicapping Mentor but revitalized the The Daily Racing Form after purchasing it with a group in 1998.

Steven Crist is a heavyweight in the world of Horse Racing, author, publisher, columnist, and he revolutionized the publics approach to handicapping, (especially yours truly) with his groundbreaking book, "Exotic Betting" changing the way people think not just about their wagers, but how they are going to structure their wagers as well. The book also helped handicappers manage their betting bankroll more effectively to create more opportunities for them to cash a winning ticket.

Good Luck has seemed to follow him his entire life, so let's hope it continues and Mr.Crist makes a speedy recovery and gets back on his feet, and to the track, as soon as possible, or at least can write his highly anticipated Kentucky Derby Blog entry from his recovery bed, it is a tradition I don't want to break.

http://www.drf.com/news/crists-condition-remains-stable

Get well soon sir.

Thats all I got,
raychihasspoken